Learning Module 7: Trade Strategy and Execution

Learning Outcome Statements (LOS)

1. Discuss motivations to trade and how they relate to trading strategy

1. Profit Seeking * Alpha Decay: The erosion of short-term alpha after an investment decision is made. * High Alpha Decay: Information is rapidly incorporated into prices (e.g., earnings surprise). Requires High Trade Urgency (trade fast/aggressively) to capture value. * Low Alpha Decay: Long-term fundamental views (e.g., value investing). Allows for Low Trade Urgency (trade patiently) to minimize costs. * Information Leakage: Active managers must hide trades (e.g., using dark pools) to prevent the market from moving against them before execution.

2. Risk Management / Hedging Needs * Trading to maintain target risk levels (e.g., target beta, duration, or volatility). * Derivatives: Often used for hedging due to liquidity and low cost (e.g., selling futures to reduce beta). * Urgency: Depends on the risk profile. Highly levered funds typically have high urgency to manage risk exposure.

3. Cash Flow Needs * Client Inflows/Outflows: Trading to invest deposits or meet redemptions. * Equitization: Using futures/ETFs to temporarily invest cash inflows to minimize Cash Drag (underperformance from holding uninvested cash in a rising market) before buying underlying securities. * Urgency: Usually lower urgency unless dealing with margin calls. Redemptions are often benchmarked to the closing NAV, so trading at the Closing Price is common to match the valuation point.

4. Corporate Actions / Index Reconstitutions / Margin Calls * Corporate Actions: Mergers, spinoffs, dividends (reinvestment). * Index Reconstitution: Index funds must trade additions/deletions. Usually trade at the Market on Close (MOC) to minimize tracking error against the benchmark. * Margin Calls: High urgency to raise collateral.

2. Discuss inputs to the selection of a trading strategy

1. Order Characteristics * Side: Buy vs. Sell. (e.g., buying in a rising market is harder/costlier). * Size: Larger orders create higher Market Impact (adverse price movement caused by the trade). * Relative Size (% of ADV): Order size divided by Average Daily Volume. Higher % ADV implies higher market impact and requires longer execution horizons.

2. Security Characteristics * Security Type: Equity, Bond, FX, Derivative. * Short-term Alpha: Expected price movement over the trade horizon. Adverse movement requires higher urgency. * Price Volatility: Proxy for Execution Risk (risk of adverse price movement independent of the trade). Higher volatility \(\rightarrow\) Higher execution risk \(\rightarrow\) Higher urgency. * Liquidity: Wider spreads and lower depth increase costs and execution risk.

3. Market Conditions * Liquidity Crises: During crises, liquidity dries up; costs and volatility spike. * Seasonality: Holidays, quarter-ends affect volume.

4. Individual Risk Aversion * More risk-averse traders trade with higher urgency to eliminate execution risk (uncertainty of future price), accepting higher market impact costs.

3. Compare benchmarks for trade execution

1. Pre-Trade Benchmarks * Decision Price: Price when the PM made the investment decision. Used to measure Implementation Shortfall. * Arrival Price: Price when the order is released to the market for execution. Used to measure trading skill/cost separately from PM delay. * Previous Close: Used for momentum strategies.

2. Intraday Benchmarks * VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): The average price of all trades weighted by volume over the day. Used when the manager wants to participate in volume without taking a view on price direction. * TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price): The average price over time (equal weight to each time interval). Used to spread trades evenly, often for less liquid stocks.

3. Post-Trade Benchmarks * Closing Price: Used by index funds and mutual funds (NAV is struck at close) to minimize tracking error.

4. Price Target Benchmarks * Specific price limits set by the manager (e.g., “buy below $50”).

4. Recommend and justify a trading strategy

  • High Urgency (Short-term Alpha / High Risk Aversion / High Volatility):
    • Strategy: Trade aggressively (Front-loaded).
    • Algorithm: Arrival Price or Liquidity Seeking.
    • Benchmark: Arrival Price or Decision Price.
    • Goal: Minimize execution risk and capture alpha before it decays.
  • Low Urgency (Long-term Alpha / Low Risk Aversion / Low Volatility / Large Order):
    • Strategy: Trade patiently to minimize market impact.
    • Algorithm: VWAP, TWAP, or Scheduled.
    • Benchmark: VWAP or TWAP.
    • Goal: Minimize trading costs (market impact).

5. Describe factors that typically determine the selection of a trading algorithm class

1. Scheduled Algorithms * Examples: POV (Percent of Volume), VWAP, TWAP. * Use: For orders without short-term alpha expectations (low urgency) or small orders in liquid stocks. * Pros: Minimal market impact; transparent. * Cons: Execution risk (takes time to complete).

2. Liquidity Seeking Algorithms * Mechanics: Exploit both “lit” and “dark” venues to find liquidity; often use aggressive limit orders or Immediate-or-Cancel (IOC). * Use: Large orders in illiquid names or when liquidity is sporadic. * Goal: Trade quickly without signaling intent.

3. Arrival Price Algorithms * Mechanics: Trade aggressively at the start (front-loaded) to execute close to the arrival price. * Use: High urgency orders (high alpha decay) or high risk aversion. * Goal: Minimize execution risk (price drift).

4. Dark Aggregators * Mechanics: Route orders to multiple dark pools. * Use: Large orders where information leakage is a concern.

5. Smart Order Routers (SOR) * Mechanics: Determine the best venue (exchange vs. ECN) for small orders based on price/liquidity.

6. Contrast key characteristics of markets (Trade Implementation)

  • Equities: Highly electronic; order-driven (exchanges) and dark pools. Algorithmic trading is dominant.
  • Fixed Income:
    • Structure: Primarily Quote-Driven (Dealer/OTC markets). High-touch (voice trading) still common for corporate bonds; electronic (RFQ) growing.
    • Liquidity: Lower than equities (especially off-the-run bonds).
  • Exchange-Traded Derivatives (Futures/Options): Highly electronic; standardized; central clearing. Algo trading is growing.
  • OTC Derivatives: Traditionally opaque; bilateral. Regulatory push towards central clearing and more transparency. Customized structures.
  • Spot Currency (FX): Fragmented (no central exchange); OTC. Mix of electronic venues (EBS, Reuters) and broker markets. Highly liquid major pairs; illiquid EM pairs.

7. Explain how trade costs are measured (Implementation Shortfall)

Implementation Shortfall (IS) * The difference between the return of a hypothetical paper portfolio (execution at decision price, no cost) and the actual portfolio. * Formula (Cost in basis points): \[IS (bps) = \frac{\text{Side} \times (\text{Avg Execution Price} - \text{Decision Price})}{\text{Decision Price}} \times 10,000\] (Where Side = +1 for Buy, -1 for Sell)

Decomposition of IS: 1. Delay Cost: Cost of time lag between decision and order entry. * \(\text{Side} \times (\text{Arrival Price} - \text{Decision Price}) \times \text{Shares Executed}\) 2. Trading (Execution) Cost: Market impact and execution friction. * \(\text{Side} \times (\text{Avg Exec Price} - \text{Arrival Price}) \times \text{Shares Executed}\) 3. Opportunity Cost: Cost of unexecuted shares (if price moved in favor of the trade). * \(\text{Side} \times (\text{Closing Price} - \text{Decision Price}) \times \text{Shares Unexecuted}\) 4. Fixed Fees: Commissions/Taxes.

8. Evaluate the execution of a trade

Trade Cost Analysis (TCA) * Goal: Assess execution quality and broker performance. * Market-Adjusted Cost: Removes general market movements from the trading cost to isolate trader skill. * \(Cost_{\text{Market-Adjusted}} = \text{Arrival Cost} - (\text{Beta} \times \text{Index Return})\) * Added Value: Comparison of actual cost vs. pre-trade cost estimate. * \(\text{Added Value} = \text{Estimated Pre-Trade Cost} - \text{Actual Arrival Cost}\) * Positive value means the trader beat the estimate (lower cost).

9. Evaluate a firm’s trading procedures (Governance)

Trade Policy Document * Must be clearly documented and reviewed regularly. * Key Contents: 1. Meaning of Best Execution: Definition within regulatory framework (e.g., maximizing value, not just lowest price). 2. Optimal Execution Approach: Factors used to select venues/strategies. 3. Eligible Brokers/Venues: List of approved counterparties and selection criteria. 4. Monitoring: Process for monitoring execution quality (TCA).

Good Governance Practices: * Trade Aggregation/Allocation: Policy for pooling trades and allocating pro-rata to ensure fairness among clients (preventing cherry-picking). * Trade Error Policy: Errors must be disclosed to compliance, documented in an error log, and resolved so the client does not suffer a loss. * Best Execution Monitoring Committee: Formal committee to review trading data and oversight.